Now that March is upon us again, it means it’s time to present my Oscar picks for the year. As has been the case over the past few years, the 95^th Academy Awards event will not be broadcast in Hong Kong this year, not that it really matters to most of us as television is a dying breed here. A few weeks ago, one of our two local pay TV service providers returned its license to the government citing heavy financial losses and stiff competition from the likes of Netflix and Disney+. When I first arrived in Hong Kong a gazillion years ago, my first job was with this company’s sister telecom company. I wasn’t impressed with them back then and my opinion hasn’t changed any in the interim. But back to the Oscars, our only option now is to rely on tweets, posts, photos and news updates on the radio to find out what’s happening live in Hollywood.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, the film that was my second favourite film of 2022, leads the field this year with 11 nominations. Based on how many other major awards it has picked up so far – one BAFTA, two Golden Globes, a DGA Award, a PGA Award, four SAG Awards and five Critics Choice awards – there’s a good chance that it’s going to be the big winner on Oscar night too.

The evening could have some surprises though, particularly from the German anti-war film, ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, which has also scored some big trophy wins including seven BAFTAs. Both that film and THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (my ninth and third favourite films of 2022, respectively) received nine Oscar nominations.

And now, here are my predictions and picks…

Actress in a Supporting Role

The nominees are:

Angela Bassett (BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER)
Hong Chau (THE WHALE)
Kerry Condon (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN)
Jamie Lee Curtis (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)
Stephanie Hsu (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)

It’s nice to see some diversity here and all these women are deserving of their nomination. It would appear that Jamie Lee Curtis is the favourite and perhaps rightly so, although Kerry Condon was delightful in BANSHEES. I’m going to predict that Jamie Lee will take home the Oscar here.

Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees are:

Brendan Gleeson (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN)
Brian Tyree Henry (CAUSEWAY)
Judd Hirsch (THE FABELMANS)
Barry Keoghan (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN)
Ke Huy Quan (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)

Barring any surprise, Ke Huy Quan is going to win here, and I’m good with that. Had he not been nominated in this category, I would have been torn between Judd Hirsch and Barry Keoghan as both were fabulous in their respective roles.

Animated Feature

The nominees are:

GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH
THE SEA BEAST
TURNING RED

This category is GDT’s to lose.

Documentary Feature

The nominees are:

ALL THAT BREATHES
ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED
FIRE OF LOVE
A HOUSE MADE OF SPLINTERS
NAVALNY

Again, another category that seems to be a one-horse race given all the awards it has copped already. NAVALNY for the win.

Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TÁR
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS

Finally, a category that’s tough to predict. All these films, except TÁR because I hadn’t seen it at the time, made it onto my list of favourite films of 2022 due in no small part to their writing. I’m going to go with EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE because of its creativity but I wouldn’t be sad if THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN wins.

Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY
LIVING
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
WOMEN TALKING

Many people were surprised that TOP GUN: MAVERICK’s star, Tom Cruise, didn’t pick up an Oscar nomination. I’m going to predict that the film will win this category. If I’m right, will Tom jump up on his chair and celebrate? I guess we’ll see.

Production Design

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
BABYLON
ELVIS
THE FABELMANS

The question here is how much Hollywood likes James Cameron. If it’s enough, and I doubt it is, AVATAR will win. If not, then the award will go to ELVIS. Personally, I’m rooting for ELVIS.

Costume Design

The nominees are:

BABYLON
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS

Four years ago, I predicted that Ruth E. Carter would win an Oscar for her Afrofuturistic designs in BLACK PANTHER and I was correct. Will she win again for WAKANDA FOREVER? I’m not so sure because I didn’t see that these new designs upped her game from the first film. MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS showed off some stunning Dior-inspired designs by three-time Oscar winner Jenny Beavan but I’m going to go with four-time Oscar winner Catherine Martin for her designs in ELVIS.

Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
THE WHALE

A man in a latex fat suit. THE WHALE.

Visual Effects

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
TOP GUN: MAVERICK

AVATAR can’t go home empty-handed. This is the category it will win.

Sound

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
ELVIS
TOP GUN: MAVERICK

If I’m right, Tom will be cheering again. TOP GUN: MAVERICK.

Film Editing

The nominees are:

THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
TÁR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK

This category might be a two-horse race between EEAAO and TGM. It’s a tough one but I’m to go with EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE.

Cinematography

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS
ELVIS
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
TÁR

I must admit that I’m surprised to see BARDO here. Outside of that film, this is another tough category as there are some very qualified contenders. EMPIRE OF LIGHT was a mess of a film but it was pretty to look at. TÁR was competently made but not outstanding. That leaves ALL QUIET and ELVIS. Certainly ELVIS is a feast for the eyes but I’m going to go with ALL QUIET here.

International Feature Film

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT (Germany)
ARGENTINA, 1985 (Argentina)
CLOSE (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
THE QUIET GIRL (Ireland)

This would appear to be a one-horse race with ALL QUIET taking home the Oscar but ARGENTINA, 1985, which surprised everyone by winning the Golden Globe, may stage an upset. I’m betting it won’t and cast my virtual vote for ALL QUIET.

Score

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BABYLON
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS

Three-time Oscar nominee Carter Burwell versus 91-year-old, five-time Oscar winner, John Williams. I’m going to go with Williams for THE FABELMANS.

Original Song

The nominees are:

“Applause” from TELL IT LIKE A WOMAN
“Hold My Hand” from TOP GUN: MAVERICK
“Lift Me Up” from BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is a Life” from EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

When I heard that “Naatu Naatu” got an Oscar nomination, the people of India must have heard me cheering. RRR was my favourite film last year and the movie’s infectious dance number is the high point of that delightful film. At this point, I don’t care if it wins. All I want is to see the two actors perform the dance live to a global audience. Forget about last year’s slap. THIS is what everyone will be talking about the day after the Oscars airs. So what do I think is going to win? If it’s Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up”, I may just slit my wrists. Just the thought of hearing her drone that song again sends my stomach churning. I’m going to go for Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” but if “Naatu Naatu” wins, I will be ecstatic.

Directing

The nominees are:

Martin McDonagh (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN)
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)
Steven Spielberg (THE FABELMANS)
Todd Field (TÁR)
Ruben Östlund (TRIANGLE OF SADNESS)

As much as I loved BANSHEES, my heart with is EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE.

Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees are:

Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
Ana de Armas (BLONDE)
Andrea Riseborough (TO LESLIE)
Michelle Williams (THE FABELMANS)
Michelle Yeoh (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)

When Andrea Riseborough’s name was announced, eyebrows were raised, heads were cocked and a collective “Huh???” was heard. The movie is not very good and her performance in it is definitely not worth an Oscar nomination. But she apparently has some very influential friends who mounted a campaign on her behalf to get her the nom. This category has really come down to a two-horse race between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, with Yeoh the strong favourite after all her other award wins. My vote is with Michelle, not just because she’s the favourite or that she was wonderful in EEAAO. She’s also from this part of the world and I gotta support the home girl!

Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees are:

Austin Butler (ELVIS)
Colin Farrell (THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN)
Brendan Fraser (THE WHALE)
Paul Mescal (AFTERSUN)
Bill Nighy (LIVING)

I honestly don’t understand the love Paul Mescal is receiving for his performance in AFTERSUN. The film did nothing for me and his performance wasn’t anything special. Slightly above that feeling is how I feel about Brendan Fraser’s name being here. I like the guy and I’m glad he’s back in the limelight again but THE WHALE is this year’s THE WIFE. It’s a lousy film with a good central performance. That being said, Hollywood loves a comeback so he’s probably going to win. Too bad as I would have preferred to see Colin Farrell win.

Best Picture

The nominees are:

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TÁR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
WOMEN TALKING

The Academy has a lousy track record for picking the year’s best film, opting instead for the year’s sentimental favourite. This year’s best film is EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE and its sentimental favourite is TOP GUN: MAVERICK. Fortunately, TGM wouldn’t be such a terrible choice if the voters should that route but I think they’ll get it right this year and go with EEAAO.

In summary then, here’s where I think the awards will land:

EEAAO – 7
Top Gun: Maverick – 3
Elvis – 2
The Whale – 2
All Quiet – 2
The Fabelmans – 1
Avatar: The Way of Water – 1
GDT’s Pinocchio – 1
Navalny – 1

Enjoy the show and let me know your predictions.

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