March is here again and that means it’s time for my annual Oscar picks. As has been the norm in Hong Kong since 2021, the 96th Academy Awards event will not be broadcast here. Unless one has a VPN, our only option is to rely on social media and live updates online. Asia’s World City indeed.

OPPENHEIMER, which was my favourite film of 2023, leads the field this year with 13 nominations. Based on how many other major awards it has picked up so far – seven BAFTAs, five Golden Globes, the DGA Award, the PGA Award, three SAG Awards, eight Critics Choice awards and even a Grammy – there’s a strong chance that it’s going to be the big winner on Oscar night too.

My second favourite film of the year (as at the end of December) was SALTBURN but, rather disappointingly, it has not found any love amongst the people who vote for these awards. It only garnered a handful of nominations, none of which included the Oscars. But things have changed in my life in the past few months and so has my list. In February I watched POOR THINGS and it has supplanted SALTBURN as my second favourite film of the year. That film has received plenty of awards love, and rightly so, some of which has come from the AMPAS members. It’s up for 11 Oscars and some of the categories may give Oppenheimies, as Cillian Murphy calls his fellow artists who worked on the film, a run for their money.

The evening could have a few other surprises too, particularly coming from ANATOMY OF A FALL, a film I enjoyed but thought was overrated, and THE ZONE OF INTEREST, a film I appreciated (you can’t really say that you enjoy a film like that) but had a problem with its intentional obscurity.

And now, here are my predictions…

Actress in a Supporting Role

The nominees are:
Emily Blunt (OPPENHEIMER)
Danielle Brooks (THE COLOR PURPLE)
America Ferrera (BARBIE)
Jodie Foster (NYAD)
Da’vine Joy Randolph (THE HOLDOVERS)

While there were some excellent performances coming from these women (I’m looking at you in particular, Danielle Brooks), one outshined them all. Da’vine Joy Randolph was the best thing about THE HOLDOVERS. Director Alexander Payne should have made the film around her character. I’m going with Randolph for the win.

Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees are:
Sterling K. Brown (AMERICAN FICTION)
Robert De Niro (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Robert Downey Jr. (OPPENHEIMER)
Ryan Gosling (BARBIE)
Mark Ruffalo (POOR THINGS)

This is one of those very rare cases where all the nominees are deserving of the award. Bravo to the Academy members for getting it right! There can only be one winner though, and my vote unquestionably goes to Robert Downey Jr.

Animated Feature

The nominees are:
THE BOY AND THE HERON
ELEMENTAL
NIMONA
ROBOT DREAMS
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE

I wasn’t a fan of THE BOY AND THE HERON because I didn’t like the voice actors that were used in the original version that I saw. My understanding that the voice actors used in the English version really made that film special so, even though I would prefer to see SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE win, I’m going to go with THE BOY AND THE HERON.

Documentary Feature

The nominees are:
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
FOUR DAUGHTERS
TO KILL A TIGER
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL

What a difference a year makes. Last year, NAVALNY won the Oscar in this category. Now the man is dead. That fact will not be lost on the Academy voters. 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL will win the Oscar.

Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are:
AMERICAN FICTION
BARBIE
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST

Wow, Academy members, you’re really on the ball this year. These are all worthy nominees, which makes choosing one that much harder. I’m going to go with OPPENHEIMER but if the Academy wants to honour the biggest film of the year (it’s BARBIE, in case you didn’t know), this would be the place to do it.

Original Screenplay

The nominees are:
ANATOMY OF A FALL
THE HOLDOVERS
MAESTRO
MAY DECEMBER
PAST LIVES

I take back what I wrote about the Academy members being on the ball. None of these films are outstanding from the aspect of their writing. Which to choose, which to choose? I’m going to go with ANATOMY OF A FALL.

Production Design

The nominees are:
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
NAPOLEON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS

Ooh, another tough category. I keep going back and forth on this one between OPPENHEIMER and POOR THINGS. I’m going to go with POOR THINGS but if they split the vote and BARBIE wins, I won’t be sad.

Costume Design

The nominees are:
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
NAPOLEON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS

Well done, Academy members, again. You got this category right too. The BARBIE costumes – especially Ken’s mink coat – were fabulous but the costumes in POOR THINGS were off the charts. My vote goes to POOR THINGS.

Makeup and Hairstyling

The nominees are:
GOLDA
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW

We’ve got two prosthetic noses in competition here. Neither will win. This is a tough category because the hair and makeup in the other three films were excellent. Even though Tom Conti made for a convincing Albert Einstein and Florence Pugh’s boobs were lovely to look at, I’m going to go with POOR THINGS.

Visual Effects

The nominees are:
THE CREATOR
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
NAPOLEON

I wish I’d seen GODZILLA MINUS ONE but it hasn’t come to Hong Kong and there’s no indication when it will… unless it’s coming to the HKIFF at the end of March. Hmm… As I’m operating at a disadvantage here, I’m going to cast my vote with MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE.

Sound

The nominees are:
THE CREATOR
MAESTRO
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
OPPENHEIMER
THE ZONE OF INTEREST

I’m going to go with THE ZONE OF INTEREST here. OPPENHEIMER can’t win everything, can it?

Film Editing

The nominees are:
ANATOMY OF A FALL
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS

Any film that can keep audiences riveted to their seats for three hours deserves an Oscar. It’s even more true when the story is about nuclear physics. OPPENHEIMER it is.

Cinematography

The nominees are:
EL CONDE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS

I’ve got to say that the cinematography in POOR THINGS is amazing but my vote goes to OPPENHEIMER.

International Feature Film

The nominees are:
IO CAPITANO (Italy)
PERFECT DAYS (Japan)
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW (Spain)
THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE (Germany)
THE ZONE OF INTEREST (United Kingdom)

This is one of those rare years where I’ve seen all the nominees before the Oscars. They’re all good films and worthy nominees but THE ZONE OF INTEREST is in a class by itself. My vote goes there.

Original Score

The nominees are:
Laura Karpman (AMERICAN FICTION)
John Williams (INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY)
Robbie Robertson (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Ludwig Göransson (OPPENHEIMER)
Jerskin Fendrix (POOR THINGS)

Did you know that Robbie Robertson never won a Grammy? This is his first Oscar nomination too. (He previously scored The Last Waltz (1978), Raging Bull (1980), The King of Comedy (1983), Casino (1995), Gangs of New York (2002) and The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)). But the late, great musician is up against 92-year-old, five-time Oscar winner, John Williams. Then there’s Ludwig Göransson who won an Oscar for BLACK PANTHER. Tough choice but I’m going to back the home team and go with my fellow Torontonian, Robbie Robertson.

Original Song

The nominees are:
“The Fire Inside” from FLAMIN’ HOT
“I’m Just Ken” from BARBIE
“It Never Went Away” from AMERICAN SYMPHONY
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
“What Was I Made For?” from BARBIE

I’m not sure why Billie Eilish beat out Mark Ronson for the Song of the Year Grammy a few weeks ago (technically it was Dua Lipa she beat but Ronson produced the song) but I don’t think that’s going to happen at the Oscars. The Kenergy is too great. My vote goes to “I’m Just Ken”.

Directing

The nominees are:
Justine Triet (ANATOMY OF A FALL)
Martin Scorsese (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Christopher Nolan (OPPENHEIMER)
Yorgos Lanthimos (POOR THINGS)
Jonathan Glazer (THE ZONE OF INTEREST)

Does anyone really think that Christopher Nolan isn’t going to win here? I’m not a Nolan fan but come on. It would be a miscarriage of justice if he didn’t win.

Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees are:
Annette Bening (NYAD)
Lily Gladstone (KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON)
Sandra Hüller (ANATOMY OF A FALL)
Carey Mulligan (MAESTRO)
Emma Stone (POOR THINGS)

One of these names does not belong on the list and that’s Annette Bening’s. She clearly has a lot of friends in the Academy. (I’m sure she’s a very nice person.) This is a two-horse race, though, between Gladstone and Stone. Before I watched POOR THINGS, I would have solidly supported Gladstone to win this one but Stone’s performance was like a supernova and I’m not even a big fan of hers. Nevertheless, in the wake of all the backlash the Academy has received in recent years over its lack of diversity in who gets nominated, I’m going to go with Gladstone. It would be unfair to say that, if she wins, it’s because she’s native American. Her performance was truly sublime.

Actor in a Leading Role

The nominees are:
Bradley Cooper (MAESTRO)
Colman Domingo (RUSTIN)
Paul Giamatti (THE HOLDOVERS)
Cilllian Murphy (OPPENHEIMER)
Jeffrey Wright (AMERICAN FICTION)

Early in the awards season, it was looking like Paul Giamatti might be able to snatch this Oscar away from Cillian Murphy. Since that time, Murphy has racked up a string of wins leaving Giamatti to smile and applaud from the dinner tables. Murphy is going to take this one for sure and so he should.

Best Picture

The nominees are:
AMERICAN FICTION
ANATOMY OF A FALL
BARBIE
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
PAST LIVES
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST

The Academy members usually get this category wrong, opting to crown the year’s sentimental favourite film as the winner. (Remember DRIVING MISS DAISY? It beat out MY LEFT FOOT!) They got it right last year, though, with EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. Will lightning strike twice in the same place so soon or will the ranked voting system in this category push a film like THE HOLDOVERS to the top? I think there will be enough 1st choice votes cast to award the Oscar to OPPENHEIMER.

My final tally: OPPENHEIMER — 7; POOR THINGS — 3; THE ZONE OF INTEREST — 2; KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON — 2; BARBIE — 1; ANATOMY OF A FALL — 1; THE HOLDOVERS — 1; MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE — 1.

Enjoy the show, and let me know your predictions and how well you did. Last year I was 15 for 21.

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