The 97th Academy Awards has finally arrived bringing a close to an awards season so hotly contested that even the most ardent of movie pundits is unsure of which films and which actors will win the big prizes on Sunday night. The frontrunner going into this race is EMILIA PÉREZ with 13 nominations, which is the most a non-English-language film has ever received. It was looking like this was going to be their night until word came that its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, has a nasty reputation for posting racist tweets. Rather than simply apologizing and laying low for a few months while this storm blew over, Gascón went public a few times to try to play damage control but she only made things worse for both herself and anyone associated with the movie… except for Zoe Saldaña, who distanced herself right away from Gascón and has been taking home award after award ever since. Now, the frontrunner will be lucky if it wins anything more than one Oscar.

Both WICKED and THE BRUTALIST followed with ten nominations each but WICKED’s Oscar hopes don’t seem to be any better than EMILIA PÉREZ’s. It’s done poorly at all the other awards ceremonies but it may just be that the voters are waiting until November when they can see if director Jon M. Chu was able to stick the landing with WICKED: FOR GOOD. THE BRUTALIST, on the other hand, may do better on Oscar night as its star, Adrien Brody, has won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice Awards. What he didn’t win, though, was the SAG Award. Much to most people’s surprise but not unwarranted, that award went to Timothée Chalamet and suddenly we have a race on in the Best Actor category.

The same thing is true in the Best Actress category where Demi Moore has been racking up award after award. At the Independent Spirit Awards last week, Mikey Madison won the Lead Actress Award, leaving people to wonder if Demi’s train has finally run out of steam.

Alright. Without further ado, here are my picks for who and what will win on Oscars night:

Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov in ANORA
Kieran Culkin in A REAL PAIN
Edward Norton in A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Guy Pearce in THE BRUTALIST
Jeremy Strong in THE APPRENTICE

Borisov was the second best thing about ANORA and his nomination is well deserved. The same goes for Norton but this is Culkin’s Oscar to lose and I’m going with him.

Costume Design

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
GLADIATOR II
NOSFERATU
WICKED

This is tough one. My heart is with NOSFERATU but I can’t ignore CONCLAVE or WICKED. I’m going to go with CONCLAVE.

Makeup and Hairstyling

A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PÉREZ
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

This is another category where my heart and my head are in conflict. My heart says NOSFERATU but my head says THE SUBSTANCE. I’m going to go with THE SUBSTANCE.

Music (Original Score)

THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
WICKED
THE WILD ROBOT

I hope THE BRUTALIST wins just to piss off a friend in Toronto who hated the music but I’m going to go with WICKED here. It would be a shame if it didn’t win anything.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING

I’m going to go out on a limb and vote for SING SING.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A REAL PAIN
SEPTEMBER 5
THE SUBSTANCE

I think this is between ANORA and THE BRUTALIST. While I can’t ignore the epic scale of THE BRUTALIST, I’m going to cast my vote for ANORA.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro in A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Ariana Grande in WICKED
Felicity Jones in THE BRUTALIST
Isabella Rossellini in CONCLAVE
Zoe Saldaña in EMILIA PÉREZ

I’ve always loved Isabella Rossellini but this isn’t her award to win. It’s Saldaña’s, and deservedly so. If there is going to be an upset here, I’d like Barbaro to win because she was by far the best thing about her movie.

Music (Original Song)

“El Mal” from EMILIA PÉREZ
“The Journey” from THE SIX TRIPLE EIGHT
“Like A Bird” from SING SING
“Mi Camino” from EMILIA PÉREZ
“Never Too Late” from ELTON JOHN: NEVER TOO LATE

This is a fun category with the EMILIA PÉREZ folks competing with two songs against 15-time Oscar loser Diane Warren and EGOT legend Elton John. Sorry, Diane. I think this is going to be your #16. Though I don’t think it’s a great song, I’m going to go with “El Mal”.

Documentary Feature Film

BLACK BOX DIARIES
NO OTHER LAND
PORCELAIN WAR
SOUNDTRACK TO A COUP D’ETAT
SUGARCANE

This is a category where I’ve usually seen most, if not all, of the films by now. Not this year. I’m going to go with SUGARCANE, though I suspect NO OTHER LAND will win.

International Feature Film

Brazil, I’M STILL HERE
Denmark, THE GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE
France, EMILIA PÉREZ
Germany, THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
Latvia, FLOW

Although I’d like to see THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG win, the momentum seems to be with I’M STILL HERE so I’ll be a lemming and choose that film too. Sorry, EMILIA!

Animated Feature Film

FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT

Usually by this time of year, I’ve seen all the nominated animated features but this year I haven’t. FLOW isn’t coming here until April 26. I think the Hong Kong International Film Festival is holding onto it for themselves. That being the case, I’m going take a wild guess here and go for THE WILD ROBOT.

Production Design

THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
NOSFERATU
WICKED

Another tough category as all are well deserving of this award. I’m going to go out of a limb again and cast my virtual vote for NOSFERATU. I doubt it will win but I’m sticking to my guns.

Film Editing

ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PÉREZ
WICKED

This category seems a bit too easy so maybe I’m missing something. ANORA all the way.

Sound

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PÉREZ
WICKED
THE WILD ROBOT

I’ve got to go with DUNE: PART TWO on this one.

Visual Effects

ALIEN: ROMULUS
BETTER MAN
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
WICKED

Again, DUNE: PART TWO.

Cinematography

THE BRUTALIST
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PÉREZ
MARIA
NOSFERATU

Oh, I’m torn between THE BRUTALIST and DUNE: PART TWO. If my logic about WICKED holds true, then this award should go to DUNE: PART TWO. Nevertheless, I’m going to go with THE BRUTALIST.

Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody in THE BRUTALIST
Timothée Chalamet in A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Colman Domingo in SING SING
Ralph Fiennes in CONCLAVE
Sebastian Stan in THE APPRENTICE

My virtual vote goes to Brody. He was fantastic in that movie, losing himself in the character. Although Chalamet was impressive, he’s only 29. He’ll have plenty more chances to win… and he will win.

Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo in WICKED
Karla Sofía Gascón in EMILIA PÉREZ
Mikey Madison in ANORA
Demi Moore in THE SUBSTANCE
Fernanda Torres in I’M STILL HERE

If there was going to be an upset, this was the category where it was going to happen until Gascón tanked her chances with her Mean Racist Girl tweets. Although Madison was excellent, as was Erivo, I’m sticking with Demi. She’s paid her dues; now it’s time for the big payback.

Directing

Sean Baker for ANORA
Brady Corbet for THE BRUTALIST
James Mangold for A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Jacques Audiard for EMILIA PÉREZ
Coralie Fargeat for THE SUBSTANCE

Another tough category. If anyone has the edge here, it’s Baker, who won the Palme d’Or, the DGA and the Independent Spirit Award. Corbet, however, won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Who knows? They might split the vote and Mangold will win. My head says to go with Baker but my heart says to go with Corbet. I’m going to go with Baker only because he won the DGA.

Best Picture

ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PÉREZ
I’M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED

At last, the category that Oscar voters continue to screw up on. The rightful winner should be THE BRUTALIST. What might win is the safe choice, CONCLAVE. I’m going with THE BRUTALIST.

My final tally: ANORA and THE BRUTALIST — 3 each; DUNE: PART TWO; EMILIA PÉREZ; THE SUBSTANCE — 2 each; A REAL PAIN; CONCLAVE; I’M STILL HERE; NOSFERATU; SING SING; SUGARCANE; THE WILD ROBOT; WICKED — 1 each. The big loser of the night: A COMPLETE UNKNOWN — 0.

Enjoy the show, and let me know your predictions and how well you did. Last year I went 14 for 20.

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